According to data from the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan, the overall inflation rate in the country stood at 5.6% during the period from January to April 2026, while food inflation was recorded at 6.7%. According to official reports, in April—compared to the previous month—prices rose for such staple food products as buckwheat, meat and meat products, cheese, margarine, corn oil, lemons, bananas, apples, kiwis, white cabbage, beets, and potatoes. At the same time, the agency reports a decline in prices for eggs, oranges, chestnuts, cauliflower, fresh herbs, cucumbers, tomatoes, sweet peppers, eggplants, garlic, and onions.
However, independent analysts dismiss the official figures as a fiction—an attempt by the authorities to mask a deep socio-economic crisis. Vahid Maharramov, an expert in the agricultural sector, stated that the reported food inflation rate of 6.7% is completely unrealistic. According to him, independent market monitoring clearly demonstrates that food price growth in the country has long since reached double-digit levels. The expert emphasized that prices in Azerbaijan are inherently inflated compared to those in other nations. While global food prices rose by an average of 1.8–1.9%, in Azerbaijan—even according to falsified official statistics—price growth proved to be three times higher than the global rate. The situation is further exacerbated by a critical decline in the population’s purchasing power and a high level of unemployment.
Maharramov noted that the most catastrophic price increases compared to last year have been recorded in the fruit and vegetable sector. During the same period last year, seasonal produce cost at least 30–40% less. For instance, whereas in May of last year a kilogram of tomatoes or cucumbers cost an average of 2–2.50 manats, today their price fluctuates between 3 and 4 manats. The price of beans has risen from 2.50–3 manats to 4 manats, while strawberries—which could be purchased for 2.50–3 manats last year—are now selling for 4–5 manats. In this context, the expert pointed to a structural crisis: through its own domestic production, Azerbaijan is capable of meeting only 35% of the internal demand for fruit.
According to the expert, the Azerbaijani government has a direct motive for artificially understating inflation figures. If the authorities were to acknowledge the true scale of rising prices, they would be legally obligated to index and increase wages and pensions—a step the regime is unwilling to take. Relevant agencies have received clear instructions to keep statistical figures within single digits, and this number will continue to be artificially suppressed through the end of the year. Magerramov noted that such falsification practices have been employed previously as well: even when real inflation exceeded 20%—driven by rising diesel fuel prices—the statistics were manipulated downward to 19%. The expert identified the total monopolization of the market and trade sectors as the primary causes exacerbating the crisis. While farmers are forced to sell produce—such as strawberries—to middlemen for a pittance (at 1.50–2 manats), retail prices skyrocket to 5–6 manats due to monopolistic collusion.
