Aliyev faces a difficult choice

Recently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan issued a joint statement that the Armenian army allegedly fires the line of contact, to which the Armenian Defense Ministry replied that it will respond to any provocations.

The statement of the Azerbaijani authorities gave reason to assume that sets the stage for some provocations. Actually, Azerbaijan has nothing left but to look for ways of retreat from military diplomacy – there is no other way than retreat after the April war in Azerbaijan.

And for this, it is necessary to work with the public conscience, which the Azerbaijani authorities demonized for years, along with the arms race, stating that until the fall of Armenia and Artsakh, there were few hours left. Baku tried to present the April war exactly in this light, but it is difficult to overcome its own propaganda traps – for “victory” Azerbaijan had to either force the Armenian side to sign a document or prove that it could solve the issue by force.

Neither of them succeeded, and the leadership of Azerbaijan was in its own trap.

Now Aliyev is trying to take some steps, for example, to appoint his wife as vice-president and let her state that in Azerbaijan they do not perceive Armenians as enemies. The effect of this step is certainly more internal than external.

Another way to ease internal tension may be attempts to position oneself as victims of punitive actions by Armenians. Azerbaijan calls on the world community to condemn Armenians, but on a subconscious level this convinces the Azerbaijani people of the ability of Armenians to punish severely. And this gives rise to fear.

The leadership of Azerbaijan for many years tried to overcome this fear, preparing its people for an offensive in Artsakh. The attack failed, and the foolhardy brawl began to stifle Aliyev. He knows that he can not give the order for a large-scale offensive, and in order to weaken bravado, one must generate fear of the Armenians.

It is noteworthy that the statement was joint. The matter is that recently there have been some discrepancies between the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan. For example, after the meeting in Moscow on April 27 of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister stated that there is the possibility of applying the formula “Territories in exchange for peace.”

That is, Mamedyarov declares a peace process. Literally a couple of days after that, Azerbaijani forces shelled the air defense station in Artsakh with Israeli Spikes. This was followed by a tough response from the Armenian side, and the co-chairs directly pointed to the responsibility of Azerbaijan.

In fact, while the Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan spoke about the peace process, the Defense Ministry took a step that caused serious problems at the level of the co-chairs.

In addition, spy scandals do not cease in Azerbaijan. A couple of weeks ago the group was supposedly neutralized, allegedly connected with the Armenians, and recently, before the Aliyev-Putin meeting in Sochi, information appeared about the detention of another group, whose “etymology” was not reported.

It is also noteworthy that in the extensive interview of RIA Novosti, the Azerbaijani Defense Minister hardly mentioned Aliev, as if he himself determines the policy of the country. By the way, there was also information that Armenians, allegedly, were going to blow up the helicopter of the Azerbaijani Defense Minister. It is not clear why Armenians need it, but it would be very profitable for certain forces in Azerbaijan itself.

Perhaps, the joint statement is Aliyev’s attempt to “consolidate” power in Azerbaijan and to point out that there is no disagreement between the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Defense.

Although the struggle in the Azerbaijani establishment is obvious – military diplomacy in the guise of Hasanov and a smooth retreat in the face of the Mamedyarov-Mehriban tandem.

Aliyev really faces a difficult choice.

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