Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said that Baku sent Yerevan a proposal of 5 points, if accepted, a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be signed. “Yerevan has not yet given an answer, Baku is waiting,” Bayramov says.
Official Yerevan is silent yet and does not respond to questions about what these five points are. Why? Let’s not be mistaken. There are no “offers” involved. This is a 5-point ultimatum.
Bayramov spoke about two of them: about the “Zangezur corridor” and about the beginning of the process of delimitation of the interstate border. He did not voice the others, but it can be easily assumed that the Baku ultimatum implies the recognition, in one form or another, of Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan. Most likely, something will affect the armed forces of Armenia: promises in one form or another not to arm themselves anymore, or even to hand over the remaining weapons. Suggestions to stop criticizing Baku in the international arena, or paying “compensations” are also not ruled out.
If Yerevan refuses? Well, Baku has already hinted: aggravated pressure on Artsakh, shelling and obstructing the work of its infrastructure. Well, the aggravation on the borders with Armenia, taking advantage of the weakness of the Armenian leadership and, in particular, the army, since the Armenian authorities did nothing to strengthen it in the post-war period.
It is characteristic that Baku does not send “proposals” to Stepanakert. He knows that they will simply send there. Another thing is Yerevan, Baku has high hopes for Pashinyan, they hardly doubt that Pashinyan will hand over everything in stages, it is possible that in one package. Baku is sure that for the sake of its “peace agenda”, in order to calmly enjoy life in the “major league of democratic countries”, the current government will surrender both Artsakh and its armed forces, and will itself refuse the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group. And in a couple of years, she herself will offer the Russian peacekeepers to leave Artsakh. It is possible, by the way, that the latter is also included in Baku’s “offers”.
What will the Armenian authorities do? The Armenian authorities want, as they have already said, one thing: to be left alone. Pashinyan’s hope was, presumably, on his upcoming April 9, as previously reported, visit to Moscow. Throw yourself at Putin’s feet so that he stands up for Armenia. Baku understands this, it does not intend to give Pashinyan a chance, which is why it made public the fact of transferring its “proposals” to Yerevan.
So Pashinyan is unlikely to succeed in delaying until April 9. Either agree or prepare to repel the next aggression of Azerbaijan. Obviously, there is no desire to deal with the last Pashinyan. The prospect that he will meet the “offers” of Baku, even if he broke a little at first for decency, is more real.
Does Armenia have a way out? There is. The authorities of those who exchange the vital interests of their people for personal well-being must be put to an end. The prospect of Armenia is in the transfer of power to the opposition forces.
Ruben Margaryan, Voice of Armenia