I am sure that everyone knew how the confrontation in Nagorno-Karabakh would end. Let’s be honest and admit to ourselves that it is unlikely that Karabakh had a future outside of Azerbaijan and this should have been understood much earlier.
Let’s leave aside the fact of how exactly Aliyev got Karabakh and what he did to achieve his goal. The world doesn’t care about Armenia and the Armenians of Karabakh, let alone the Russian dictator, Aliyev’s friend. Of course, we all hoped for a more favorable outcome, but when Armenia itself turned its back on Karabakh, who would support then?
Now let’s look to the future. Now all Armenians are trying to leave this zone for Armenia. And this means that there will be no Armenians left in Karabakh. For Aliyev, this is a goal, but this goal will also hurt his image. I foresee propaganda to the entire world, from Baku, that the Armenians are so bad and did not want to live in “beautiful” Azerbaijan, well, we are not holding them back. However, Aliyev has already set conditions for the extradition of people involved in the war. And there are many of them in Karabakh.
If Aliyev insists on this, and no one can stop him either in Armenia or in other parts of the world, then it turns out that he (Aliyev) will be able to insist on anything in the future. What is the way out of this situation? Insist that the residents of Karabakh freely leave the region without any conditions. Someone must be the guarantor of these actions. Otherwise, there will be an officially sanctioned “massacre”
Again, assume that everything will go smoothly. Armenians will leave Karabakh, their land on which they lived for centuries even before the invasion of modern Azerbaijanis into the region. What will Aliyev do when he no longer has leverage over his people!?
Azerbaijan, no matter how hard it tries to seem successful, is in a deep crisis. The population cannot find work because there is no work. If you are not in the oil sector, you can hardly do anything. If before this everything could be attributed to the patriotic “Hurray for us, we are taking Karabakh and all the funds are going to the war,” then how can Aliyev justify himself now?
Aliyev cannot live without an enemy, otherwise the people of Azerbaijan will begin to turn their heads towards the interior of the country and, what is worst for Aliyev, will begin to think! But the thinking population is not beneficial for Aliyev and therefore he will continue his policy by all means.
Aliyev said that there is no hatred towards Armenians in Azerbaijan, that everything is fine. But it is impossible to erase 30 years of cruel propaganda! The people of Azerbaijan will not stop hating Armenians overnight! This means Aliyev will still have to play the same game. And there is a reason for this.
The Zangezur corridor is the next stage for official Baku, on which Aliyev can calmly insist, and if Armenia does not agree, then repeat the standard scenario for Azerbaijan. Armenia will stage “provocations”, and “poor” Azerbaijan will have to conduct a special military operation on the territory of Armenia.
I consider this scenario to be the most realistic. Everything is going so well for Aliyev. There is no one on the side of Armenia. Russia openly supported Azerbaijan in the latest aggression, thus punishing Armenia for rapprochement with the West. Will the West help Armenia in such a situation? Again, no. The war in Ukraine is more important for Europe than some small, useless Armenia.
In any case, you cannot expect a good attitude from Aliyev under any circumstances and you must be prepared for all possible events.